Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:38:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54bb…e416
crypto · 231 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$410 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$436 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$436
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses54 / 176
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage133d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 1 History 230 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$34
14 days−$81
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -38%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -32%
1H Spread: Knicks (-11.5) Jun 14 $4 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 -1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -41%
1st 5 Innings Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -46%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $8 $0 -2%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-2.5) Jun 13 $1 +$4 +344%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$1 -32%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 -9%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA Jun 12 $3 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Jun 12 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Granit Xhaka score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $6 $0 -4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -17%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 11 $1 $0 -38%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America L Jun 11 $8 +$1 +11%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $6 −$3 -51%
Set 1 Winner: Avataneo vs Jang Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Jang (-1.5) vs Avataneo (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 +$2 +97%
Will Bilibili Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Con Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez Jun 09 $2 +$3 +114%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MASONIC vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group Sta Jun 08 $8 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$389
other 9% −$24
world 7% −$5
sports 4% −$16
weather 1% +$4
politics 1% −$5
tech 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 18m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 18m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $1 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 38m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $0 45m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 45m
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 45m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 18¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -16.8% -24.8% 14% 8% -15.0%
≤30d 182 -17.5% -25.3% 17% 9% -21.2%
≤90d 182 -17.5% -25.3% 17% 9% -21.2%
all 230 -14.4% -22.5% 23% 13% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 13% -18.8%
10% -30.0% 9% -26.6%
15% -36.7% 6% -33.7%
20% -42.9% 4% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.76 · official $0.76 (match) · 1952 history records