Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:59:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ba…04e4 sports 291 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$61,503 (-11%) realized −$61,687 · open +$184
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%127W / 163L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,904per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$8,188est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$3,334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,422
7 days−$14,019
14 days−$17,137
30 days−$37,424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$71,913
other 12% −$3,489
world 1% +$2,102
crypto 0% −$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 48% -22.3%
≤30d 142 -12.5% -20.8% 44% 44% -24.1%
≤90d 290 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 43% -22.2%
all 290 -13.5% -21.7% 44% 43% -22.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 43% -22.2%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 40% -29.6%
15% -36.1% 33% -36.4%
20% -42.3% 30% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$2,332) neutral
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,404 vs −$1,546 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$3,334
Realized−$61,687
Unrealized+$184
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses127 / 163
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$8,188
Open positions1
Markets (closed)290 / 291
History coverage67d
Avg bet$1,904
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 290 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jessica Pegula 60¢ 64¢ $3,150 $3,334 +$184 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 104 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski Jun 21 $2,648 +$3,187 +120%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $1,173 +$638 +54%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $13 −$8 -58%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 21 $1,963 +$1,222 +62%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $2,068 −$72 -4%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $2,785 −$2,745 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $2,993 +$2,785 +93%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $2,180 −$2,138 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $2,485 +$1,691 +68%
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 20 $1,998 −$1,960 -98%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 20 $2,003 −$1,960 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $2,538 +$2,575 +102%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $2,024 +$554 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,102 −$3,075 -99%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $3,179 −$3,145 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $1,990 −$1,972 -99%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $5,639 −$5,573 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,956 +$626 +21%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $3,792 +$3,195 +84%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $2,625 −$2,625 -100%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $2,019 +$4,413 +219%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $5,270 −$2,246 -43%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $1,993 −$1,950 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $1,493 −$1,460 -98%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $6,428 +$2,034 +32%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $3,943 −$3,885 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $2,954 −$2,900 -98%
Asuncion 2: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 17 $672 −$659 -98%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $442 +$231 +52%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $187 +$256 +137%
Parma: Jacopo Vasami vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 17 $688 −$675 -98%
Figueira Da Foz: Barbora Palicova vs Jil Teichmann Jun 17 $531 +$344 +65%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,866 −$1,707 -44%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $889 +$1,347 +152%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $517 −$509 -98%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $704 +$216 +31%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Kajsa Rinaldo Persson Jun 16 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Dublin: Jerome Kym vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 16 $597 +$1,229 +206%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $989 −$973 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $1,920 −$1,890 -98%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $1,985 +$1,905 +96%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $1,967 −$1,947 -99%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $1,071 +$1,897 +177%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $636 −$627 -99%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Aurora Corvi vs Amelie Justine Hejtmanek Jun 16 $612 −$598 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,005 +$173 +17%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $602 +$539 +90%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $513 −$406 -79%
Brescia: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Nuria Brancaccio Jun 15 $980 +$1,421 +145%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $1,019 +$212 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 100¢ $5,835 57m
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $3,188 58m
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $1,811 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 41¢ $908 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 41¢ $908 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 55¢ $832 1h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego SELL Mariano Navone 23¢ $6 1h
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Mariano Navone 53¢ $13 1h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 64¢ $1,173 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 61¢ $1,963 7h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 100¢ $4,039 14h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 64¢ $72 14h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $1,866 14h
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 24¢ $129 15h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks BUY Alycia Parks 51¢ $2,785 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag SELL Anastasia Zakharova 100¢ $5,779 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Anastasia Zakharova 51¢ $2,993 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J BUY Oleksandra Oliynykova 34¢ $2,180 24h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 89¢ $4,176 25h
Nottingham 2: Otto Virtanen vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Otto Virtanen 35¢ $1,998 25h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Shuai Zhang 27¢ $2,003 25h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 52¢ $2,485 25h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $5,114 26h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 49¢ $2,538 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 78¢ $2,578 28h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 60¢ $2,024 29h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 71¢ $3,102 36h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 64¢ $3,179 38h
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY New York Liberty 71¢ $1,990 40h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 50¢ $1,608 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,333.80 · official $3,333.80 (match) · 637 history records