Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ba…2a14 sports 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,049 (-34%) realized −$2,049 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$92
14 days−$186
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$1,593
other 28% −$510
politics 3% +$106
world 3% −$9
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-29.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.8% +18.3% 50% 50% -27.2%
≤30d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% -23.8%
≤90d 12 +16.5% +5.4% 50% 50% -23.8%
all 83 -22.0% -29.5% 35% 35% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.5% 35% -40.7%
10% -36.2% 34% -46.4%
15% -42.4% 33% -51.6%
20% -48.0% 30% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$64 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,049
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)83 / 83
History coverage232d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 83 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $25 +$24 +93%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $40 +$35 +87%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $178 −$177 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 +$124 +226%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $77 −$76 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $99 −$22 -22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $349 −$345 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $172 +$196 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $41 +$66 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$41 +41%
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA Mar 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela Mar 14 $194 −$194 -100%
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico Mar 14 $101 +$93 +92%
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea Mar 14 $89 +$12 +14%
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $141 −$14 -10%
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico Mar 09 $33 −$33 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $149 −$9 -6%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Feb 22 $268 −$268 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 09 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 09 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Rams vs. Bears Jan 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots Jan 18 $30 −$30 -100%
49ers vs. Seahawks Jan 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 17 $6 +$4 +67%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
49ers vs. Eagles Jan 12 $20 +$42 +212%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 11 $9 +$10 +108%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5 Jan 10 $20 +$20 +98%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Ravens vs. Steelers: O/U 41.5 Jan 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 04 $10 −$2 -25%
Chargers vs. Broncos Jan 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Cowboys vs. Giants Jan 04 $5 +$8 +156%
Packers vs. Vikings: O/U 36.5 Jan 04 $24 +$12 +49%
Colts vs. Texans Jan 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Saints vs. Falcons Jan 04 $6 −$2 -34%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Jan 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Dec 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Giants vs. Raiders Dec 29 $30 +$21 +69%
Seahawks vs. Panthers Dec 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers Dec 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $49 32m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 51¢ $25 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 73¢ $75 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $40 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $178 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $55 30h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $77 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $78 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $99 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $299 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $368 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $172 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $33 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 10d
Will Italy win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? BUY Yes 9¢ $102 98d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA BUY Dominican Rep. 47¢ $100 98d
Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela BUY Japan 63¢ $194 99d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico SELL Italy 100¢ $194 99d
Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico BUY Italy 52¢ $101 100d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea SELL Dominican Rep. 100¢ $101 100d
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. South Korea BUY Dominican Rep. 87¢ $89 100d
First Round Pool B: Mexico vs. Italy BUY Mexico 5¢ $5 102d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $94 102d
First Round Pool B: USA vs. Mexico BUY Mexico 21¢ $33 104d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 104d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $141 114d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 146 history records