Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:40:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54b9…1eeb weather 43 markets active 2d ago coverage 507d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$87 (+7%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%13W / 30L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$28
14 days+$54
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$4
sports 22% −$1
weather 13% +$84
crypto 11% +$9
other 8% −$3
world 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.3% +5.2% 80% 80% +26.3%
≤30d 12 +38.5% +25.3% 83% 83% +35.7%
≤90d 12 +38.5% +25.3% 83% 83% +35.7%
all 43 +6.2% -3.9% 30% 23% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 23% -3.4%
10% -13.1% 23% -12.6%
15% -21.5% 21% -21.1%
20% -29.2% 16% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×8.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.6 per $1 lost it wins $3.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

507d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses13 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage507d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $26 +$16 +62%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $18 +$7 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 12 $12 +$6 +51%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $30 +$20 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Jun 02 $20 +$16 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? May 29 $20 +$12 +61%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? May 26 $28 +$17 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? May 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $7 +$12 +162%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $227 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $237 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Nov 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 11? Oct 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 08 $12 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? Oct 08 $10 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 08 $55 −$3 -5%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 06 $12 $0 -4%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 02 $11 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 02 $14 $0 -3%
US government shutdown by October 1? Sep 26 $5 $0 -3%
Will Europe win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 23 $17 $0 -2%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 18 $17 $0 -2%
Boxing: Canelo Álvarez vs. Terence Crawford Sep 13 $17 $0 -3%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open? Sep 06 $31 −$2 -6%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 05 $8 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $110K and $112K on September 5? Sep 05 $11 $0 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 04 $11 $0 -4%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 14 $3 $0 -0%
Will Mike Waltz leave the Trump administration in 2025? Apr 12 $12 −$2 -17%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the Western Conference? Apr 12 $8 $0 -4%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration in 2025? Apr 11 $12 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 07 $17 $0 -2%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before May? Mar 30 $3 $0 -2%
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Jan 30 $3 $0 -19%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Jan 29 $4 $0 -2%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 29 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 71¢ $18 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 69¢ $13 5d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 8d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $12 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? BUY No 55¢ $20 21d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? BUY No 61¢ $20 24d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 24? BUY No 60¢ $28 26d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? BUY No 70¢ $12 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 29d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $226 173d
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $227 173d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $237 173d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $237 173d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $234 173d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $235 173d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? BUY No 100¢ $8 232d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? SELL No 39¢ $12 254d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? SELL No 59¢ $10 254d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 17? BUY No 60¢ $10 254d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? BUY No 40¢ $12 254d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? SELL No 60¢ $30 254d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 62¢ $31 254d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? SELL No 38¢ $22 255d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? BUY No 41¢ $24 255d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? SELL No 28¢ $11 256d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? BUY No 29¢ $12 256d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL No 49¢ $10 259d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.76 · official $66.76 (match) · 91 history records