Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:06:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54b9…a7cb
sports · 9 markets active 6h ago
0.5score
−$16 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage38d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%
Chart Positions 2 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$8
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 39¢ 38¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Knicks 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$14 +257%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$9 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 72% −$24
sports 27% +$8
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $6 6h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $5 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 86¢ $20 14h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $6 17h
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $6 2d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 58¢ $36 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 14d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 34d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 37d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 37d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +78.4% +61.4% 50% 50% +58.2%
≤30d 3 +58.5% +43.4% 67% 67% +21.2%
≤90d 7 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 29% -29.6%
all 7 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 29% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 29% -29.6%
10% -42.8% 14% -36.3%
15% -48.4% 14% -42.5%
20% -53.4% 14% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.00 · official $11.00 (match) · 17 history records