Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:21:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54b8…13d9 other 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 723d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate94%48W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$2
politics 26% −$16
world 12% +$2
tech 12% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 3% +$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 51 -3.3% -12.5% 94% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -9.8%
10% -20.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

723d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses48 / 3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 53
History coverage723d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $73 $73 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 15 $58 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 07 $165 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 08 $59 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? Mar 05 $35 $0 +0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Mar 05 $188 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Feb 19 $57 $0 +0%
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 04 $54 $0 +1%
SNHL: Ajoie vs. Rapperswil-Jona Lakers Feb 03 $223 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? Dec 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will no leader be out in 2025? Oct 27 $223 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 08 $25 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? Aug 16 $22 +$1 +6%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 14 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? May 08 $32 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? Apr 17 $111 +$1 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Apr 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? Feb 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 08 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? Jan 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration? Jan 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17? Jan 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? Jan 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? Jan 05 $16 $0 +2%
Ethena crash in 2024? Jan 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will $MEW be listed first on Robinhood? Dec 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22? Nov 26 $60 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22? Nov 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 150 times November 8-15? Nov 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 09 $83 $0 +0%
Trump in jail before election day? Nov 06 $33 $0 +0%
Will Berachain launch a token in October? Nov 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times October 18-25? Oct 22 $54 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 100-124 times? Oct 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris drop out in August? Sep 23 $54 $0 +0%
Trump posts between 10 and 14 times on X? Aug 29 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump tweet 8 times this week? Aug 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 50 or more times this week? Aug 18 $54 $0 +0%
Japan wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 21? Aug 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Macron resigns before August? Aug 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will $BTC reach 80k in July? Aug 04 $16 $0 +2%
Will $ETH reach 4.3k in July? Aug 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will Biden drop out on July 20? Jul 21 $20 $0 +2%
Will Biden drop out on July 19? Jul 20 $121 +$1 +0%
Biden drops out by July 19? Jul 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31? Jul 17 $19 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $510 in June? BUY No 100¢ $73 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $58 43d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $165 73d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $59 94d
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 100¢ $188 115d
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 115d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 100¢ $57 127d
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 99¢ $54 137d
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $25 172d
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by November 30 2025? BUY No 100¢ $53 203d
Will no leader be out in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $223 242d
Xi Jinping out before October? BUY No 99¢ $25 288d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15? BUY No 94¢ $22 319d
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? BUY No 100¢ $52 372d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 7? BUY Up 99¢ $32 408d
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times April 11–18? BUY No 99¢ $111 434d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $17 461d
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Feb 21-28? BUY No 100¢ $23 481d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY Yes 100¢ $30 498d
Will Trump create a Bitcoin reserve in first week? BUY No 100¢ $36 511d
Will Xi Jinping attend presidential inauguration? BUY No 100¢ $76 517d
Will Elon tweet 800 or more times Jan 10-17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 519d
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $34 522d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $9 536d
Ethena crash in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $49 538d
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? BUY No 99¢ $10 548d
Will Ethereum hit $10k in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $16 557d
Will $MEW be listed first on Robinhood? BUY No 100¢ $9 564d
Will Trump tweet 35-39 times Nov 15-22? BUY No 100¢ $60 575d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.54 · official $118.54 (match) · 104 history records