Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54b6…eb7e other 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$99 (-0%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$14
politics 27% −$9
sports 11% −$64
economics 4% −$1
crypto 2% −$12
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 121 -4.2% -13.3% 11% 4% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 4% -9.9%
10% -21.6% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage134d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $36 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $223 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $462 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $168 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $217 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $216 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $212 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $352 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $215 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $399 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $159 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $219 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $222 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $409 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $372 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $190 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $441 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $396 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $202 $0 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $182 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $203 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $161 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 13 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $161 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $234 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $185 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $168 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 25h
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 5d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $223 32d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $223 35d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 37d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 48d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $168 49d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $168 49d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $217 50d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $217 51d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $162 51d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $162 51d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $216 51d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $216 51d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $157 52d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $157 52d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $212 52d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $212 52d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 53d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 53d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $215 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.98 · official $87.98 (match) · 360 history records