Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x54b5…2e90 sports 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,523 (-11%) realized −$1,385 · open −$138
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%90W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$6
14 days+$56
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$396
other 28% −$938
politics 8% +$6
world 4% +$39
culture 2% −$295
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -61.1% -64.8% 23% 23% -10.7%
≤30d 26 -35.3% -41.5% 35% 35% -8.9%
≤90d 51 -9.7% -18.3% 45% 45% -1.8%
all 196 -4.4% -13.5% 46% 44% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 44% -19.4%
10% -21.8% 41% -27.1%
15% -29.3% 38% -34.1%
20% -36.3% 34% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$59 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$242
Realized−$1,385
Unrealized−$138
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses90 / 106
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions5
Markets (closed)196 / 201
History coverage595d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $130 $132 +$2 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $170 $41 −$129 (-76%)
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $20 $10 −$9 (-48%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 13¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $23 −$22 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $152 +$98 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $21 −$4 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$18 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 +$28 +55%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $51 +$39 +76%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $6 −$6 -97%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 25 $111 +$70 +63%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 24 $84 +$62 +73%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $61 +$9 +15%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $51 +$84 +165%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 18 $136 −$54 -40%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 11 $50 +$78 +156%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) May 11 $10 +$8 +79%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 11 $11 +$31 +276%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $87 +$162 +187%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $50 +$20 +41%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 05 $86 +$63 +73%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Apr 27 $30 +$25 +83%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 12 $19 +$4 +18%
LoL: Citadel Gaming vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers L Apr 11 $120 −$26 -22%
LoL: Team WE vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 11 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 11 $100 −$99 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Apr 10 $30 +$24 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY No 60¢ $101 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 37h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $102 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 5d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 7d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 8d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $51 9d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $101 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 29¢ $15 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 25¢ $1 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 36¢ $5 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $51 11d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $51 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.57 · official $241.57 (match) · 506 history records