Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:56:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

54 0x54b4…14c0 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 343d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$248 (-21%) realized −$260 · open +$12

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip

Net edge-5%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate44%7W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$70per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$113

7 days−$104

14 days−$104

30 days−$104

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	-3.8%	-13.0%	42%	42%	-23.8%
≤30d	12	-3.8%	-13.0%	42%	42%	-23.8%
≤90d	12	-3.8%	-13.0%	42%	42%	-23.8%
all	16	+4.7%	-5.2%	44%	44%	-31.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.2%	44%	-31.6%
10%	-14.3%	44%	-38.1%
15%	-22.6%	38%	-44.1%
20%	-30.2%	31%	-49.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$63 vs −$77 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.64 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage

Net worth$62

Realized−$260

Unrealized+$12

Win rate (resolved)44%

Wins / losses7 / 9

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions1

Markets (closed)16 / 17

History coverage343d

Avg bet$70

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5	Under	56¢	69¢	$50	$62	+$12 (+24%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$50	+$113	+226%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$198	−$196	-99%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$118	−$117	-99%
O/U 0.5 Rounds	Jun 15	$21	−$20	-98%
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$51	+$147	+287%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	Jun 15	$32	−$31	-98%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	Jun 15	$61	+$25	+41%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$33	−$32	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$50	+$16	+32%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$25	+$17	+67%
Fight to Go the Distance?	Jun 14	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?	Jun 14	$6	−$6	-99%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	Dec 20	$104	+$9	+8%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?	Dec 14	$100	+$113	+113%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?	Dec 10	$100	−$100	-100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	Jul 13	$169	−$169	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5	BUY Under	56¢	$50	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	30¢	$50	23h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	65¢	$198	6d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	71¢	$118	6d
O/U 0.5 Rounds	BUY Under	15¢	$21	6d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?	SELL Yes	99¢	$198	6d
Will Ciryl Gane win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	25¢	$51	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$9	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main	BUY Aiemann Zahabi	23¢	$22	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	21¢	$10	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Derrick Lewis	21¢	$23	6d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	72¢	$9	6d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	70¢	$1	6d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO?	BUY Yes	70¢	$50	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card)	BUY Bo Nickal	75¢	$50	6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	59¢	$25	6d
Fight to Go the Distance?	BUY Yes	36¢	$20	6d
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250?	BUY Yes	64¢	$6	6d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	1¢	$4	183d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	SELL Yes	10¢	$113	183d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?	BUY Yes	8¢	$100	183d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	56¢	$100	193d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-12-10?	BUY Yes	47¢	$100	193d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$17	343d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$9	343d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$15	343d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$6	343d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$0	343d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$10	343d
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?	BUY Yes	28¢	$3	343d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.70 · official $61.71 (match) · 42 history records