Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x54b3…e4c5 other 13 markets active 16h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$10 (+8%) realized +$13 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +325% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +269% what you keep after slip
Net edge+269%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$110now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$2
other 23% −$2
sports 8% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+284.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +324.6% +284.2% 75% 75% +288.2%
≤30d 4 +324.6% +284.2% 75% 75% +288.2%
≤90d 4 +324.6% +284.2% 75% 75% +288.2%
all 4 +324.6% +284.2% 75% 75% +288.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +284.2% 75% +288.2%
10% +247.4% 75% +251.0%
15% +213.8% 50% +217.1%
20% +183.1% 50% +186.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +329% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +325% · $-wt +329% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.35 per $1 lost it wins $14.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$110
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)4 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $81 $79 −$2 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 15h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 16h
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 17h
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo BUY Messi 62¢ $6 20h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 42h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 43h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 43h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY No 26¢ $1 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $83 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.61 · official $109.61 (match) · 20 history records