Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54b1…1a30 crypto 184 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$108 (+6%) realized +$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%85W / 99L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$22
14 days+$48
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% −$9
other 18% +$110
sports 8% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +2.9% -6.9% 38% 38% -15.8%
≤30d 44 +18.9% +7.5% 41% 39% -2.2%
≤90d 184 +6.3% -3.8% 46% 43% -4.4%
all 184 +6.3% -3.8% 46% 43% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 43% -4.4%
10% -13.0% 41% -13.5%
15% -21.4% 36% -21.9%
20% -29.1% 30% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses85 / 99
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage87d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions (80 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$37 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $28 +$40 +142%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $13 +$23 +172%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$31 +307%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 +$14 +61%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$57 +1843%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +44%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $40 +$25 +63%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 06 $9 +$8 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 06 $28 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 25 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 25 $46 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 25 $31 +$19 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 25 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 25 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 25 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 24 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $14 +$24 +179%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $5 −$4 -85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 24 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 19 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 19 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 19 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 19 $5 +$3 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 4h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $14 27h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 28h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $61 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 41¢ $28 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 62¢ $36 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 55¢ $42 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 76¢ $36 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $22 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 7d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 11d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? SELL Yes 99¢ $66 13d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 13d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 60¢ $40 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $17 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $9 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records