Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:26:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54ae…e8cc other 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$90 (+2%) realized +$91 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate79%26W / 7L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$474now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$66
7 days+$66
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$135
world 23% +$190
economics 21% +$74
crypto 11% −$315
politics 6% −$40
sports 4% +$12
finance 3% +$78
culture 2% +$4
tech 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.8% +20.1% 100% 100% +20.1%
≤30d 1 +32.8% +20.1% 100% 100% +20.1%
≤90d 14 -8.0% -16.7% 79% 43% -19.9%
all 33 +6.3% -3.8% 79% 55% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 55% -7.3%
10% -13.0% 39% -16.2%
15% -21.4% 15% -24.3%
20% -29.1% 15% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$82 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$474
Realized+$91
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses26 / 7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)33 / 39
History coverage180d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 87¢ 100¢ $100 $115 +$15 (+15%)
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? No 77¢ 60¢ $130 $101 −$29 (-22%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 87¢ 90¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+4%)
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? No 83¢ 96¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+16%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 68¢ 76¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 28 $200 +$66 +33%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 08 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 08 $150 +$51 +34%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 08 $50 +$8 +16%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Apr 21 $250 −$250 -100%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 21 $70 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 21 $80 +$4 +4%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 14 $100 +$56 +56%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12? Apr 12 $50 +$12 +23%
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 10 $100 +$2 +2%
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? Apr 10 $110 +$7 +7%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 05 $250 +$4 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Mar 31 $50 −$50 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Mar 31 $50 +$5 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 21 $100 +$14 +14%
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $76 +$5 +6%
Will Netanyahu tweet again by Saturday? Mar 15 $50 +$17 +34%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 14 $90 +$4 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 14 $588 +$41 +7%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $46 +$43 +92%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Feb 27 $75 +$19 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 27 $7 −$6 -87%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Feb 17 $50 +$29 +59%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? Feb 01 $40 +$51 +127%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $264 +$70 +27%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 31 $200 +$30 +15%
Will Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on January 26? Jan 27 $26 +$5 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on December 31? Jan 25 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $64 −$24 -38%
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 mil Jan 17 $50 +$14 +28%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $112 +$36 +32%
Lighter FDV above $3B one day after launch? Dec 31 $50 −$47 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $266 1h
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? BUY No 77¢ $132 51d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $101 51d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $201 51d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $58 51d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? BUY No 57¢ $50 67d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $100 67d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $70 67d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 99¢ $84 67d
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $50 74d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $100 74d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 98¢ $70 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12? SELL No 100¢ $62 77d
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $60 78d
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 79d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 12? BUY No 80¢ $50 79d
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 99¢ $102 79d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $117 79d
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $110 79d
OneFootball FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $100 79d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY No 81¢ $50 79d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 86¢ $254 83d
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $50 88d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $55 88d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 68¢ $35 99d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 53¢ $100 99d
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $50 99d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL No 75¢ $114 99d
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $81 99d
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $76 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.97 · official $473.94 (match) · 197 history records