Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ae…0757 crypto 1622 markets active 4h ago coverage 7d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,640 (-3%) realized −$1,619 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%167W / 1454L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day33.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1611 -0.0% -9.6% 10% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 1621 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 1621 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 1% -9.5%
all 1621 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$17 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,619
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses167 / 1454
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1621 / 1622
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$32
Trades / day33.0
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1621 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 50¢ 90¢ $26 $48 +$21 (+81%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Down 50¢ 10¢ $26 $5 −$21 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $4 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.00 · official $53.00 (match) · 3500 history records