Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ab…e652 sports 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$344 (-12%) realized −$302 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%43W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$251now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$198
14 days+$126
30 days−$353
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$307
other 4% +$28
crypto 4% −$78
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +43.6% +29.9% 73% 73% +35.6%
≤30d 87 -29.1% -35.9% 34% 33% -26.3%
≤90d 112 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -21.4%
all 112 -21.0% -28.5% 38% 38% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 38% -21.4%
10% -35.4% 37% -28.9%
15% -41.6% 37% -35.8%
20% -47.3% 35% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$19 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$251
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses43 / 69
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions9
Markets (closed)112 / 121
History coverage42d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 58¢ $60 $61 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 68¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 56¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 40¢ 40¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 34¢ 34¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Ecuador 45¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Brazi Jun 20 $30 +$31 +101%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $18 +$16 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $41 +$31 +76%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $31 +$55 +180%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $4 +$3 +86%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $20 +$14 +70%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $69 +$59 +85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$23 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $9 +$14 +165%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$23 +76%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $67 −$67 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 11 $12 −$1 -7%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $22 +$20 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 +15%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 06 $13 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 06 $16 −$6 -41%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +74%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-8.5) Jun 06 $13 −$13 -98%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $38 −$36 -95%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 04 $10 +$8 +78%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 04 $10 +$10 +96%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Assists O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $30 +$30 +97%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) May 31 $14 −$14 -98%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 May 31 $5 +$5 +95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $66 −$15 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $43 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $10 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 45¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $10 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $30 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $20 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 45¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 40¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Brazi SELL 99¢ $61 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $35 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $34 2h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $20 3h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $18 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $20 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 21h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $31 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 21h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Brazi BUY 48¢ $30 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $4 31h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $30 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $30 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $63 32h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $23 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.65 · official $250.65 (match) · 194 history records