Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:47:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a7…b343 crypto 1826 markets active 1h ago coverage 36d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,032 (+2%) realized +$2,032 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate77%1673W / 513L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day50.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 36d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$686
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 746 -47.0% -52.0% 49% 14% -33.8%
≤30d 1819 -19.4% -27.1% 73% 24% -12.9%
≤90d 2186 -16.0% -24.0% 77% 24% -12.1%
all 2186 -16.0% -24.0% 77% 24% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.0% 24% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -31.3% 6% -20.5%
15% -37.9% 2% -28.2%
20% -44.0% 1% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$24 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses1673 / 513
Open positions0
Markets (closed)2186 / 1826
History coverage36d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day50.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 2186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 93¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 70¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Up 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Up 90¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $40 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $40 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $40 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $40 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records