Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a7…881b world 141 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (169 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54,005 (-6%) realized −$53,476 · open −$529
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate66%78W / 41L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$6,474per market
Trades / day169.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$55,273now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% +$21,943
finance 8% +$3,363
politics 7% +$1,549
other 5% +$562
crypto 5% +$7,030
economics 1% −$672
sports 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (169 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -12.8% -21.1% 57% 5% -8.6%
≤30d 119 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 12% -5.7%
≤90d 119 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 12% -5.7%
all 119 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 12% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover169.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 12% -5.7%
10% -22.5% 10% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -30.0% 8% -23.0%
20% -36.8% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$7,444) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
13.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$609 vs −$663 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$55,273
Realized−$53,476
Unrealized−$529
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses78 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions37
Markets (closed)119 / 141
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$6,474
Trades / day169.2
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 119 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 93¢ 95¢ $6,942 $7,085 +$143 (+2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $6,841 $6,827 −$14 (-0%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 88¢ 89¢ $5,761 $5,785 +$24 (+0%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $3,934 $4,081 +$147 (+4%)
Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first? $60 94¢ 83¢ $4,624 $4,075 −$548 (-12%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 87¢ 92¢ $3,832 $4,063 +$231 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $3,480 $3,522 +$42 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 96¢ 98¢ $2,000 $2,043 +$43 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,954 $1,955 +$1 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $1,800 $1,790 −$10 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 67¢ 48¢ $2,439 $1,768 −$671 (-28%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $1,608 $1,519 −$88 (-5%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $1,255 $1,255 −$1 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,169 $1,217 +$48 (+4%)
Nothing Ever Happens: June Nothing 87¢ 94¢ $1,058 $1,134 +$76 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 75¢ 63¢ $1,121 $942 −$179 (-16%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $855 $896 +$41 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 92¢ 92¢ $894 $895 +$1 (+0%)
Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid? Yes 86¢ 93¢ $819 $891 +$72 (+9%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 97¢ $848 $874 +$26 (+3%)
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 96¢ 96¢ $818 $818 +$0 (+0%)
Will Syria sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 96¢ 96¢ $387 $389 +$1 (+0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 97¢ 99¢ $278 $283 +$6 (+2%)
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $222 $253 +$31 (+14%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 19? No 91¢ 98¢ $215 $232 +$17 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 18 $39 −$1,541 -3916%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on April 24? Jun 18 $219 −$219 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? Jun 18 $37 −$16 -42%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? Jun 18 $1,124 −$3,230 -287%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $940 −$940 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? Jun 18 $14 −$5,681 -41878%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? Jun 18 $90 −$1,292 -1435%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 18 $849 −$1,095 -129%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $7,321 +$253 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 17 $5,192 −$149 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $5,122 −$348 -7%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3,726 −$1,638 -44%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $25,328 −$1,292 -5%
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $1,700 −$65 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 17 $31,450 +$108 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $10,791 +$235 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $9,533 −$58 -1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $4,013 +$233 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $7,148 +$186 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 16 $870 +$21 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5,639 −$46 -1%
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? Jun 16 $336 +$11 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 16 $8,843 +$138 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $19,099 +$360 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 16 $2,620 +$37 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 16 $1,035 +$84 +8%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $4,015 +$14 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $5,160 +$150 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $13,404 +$187 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $8,225 −$1,231 -15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $24,215 +$253 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $43,772 +$60 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $19,278 +$137 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $34,775 +$126 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $6,617 +$245 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $4,127 −$389 -9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $4,872 +$1,674 +34%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31? Jun 14 $855 +$9 +1%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 14 $8,828 +$6,836 +77%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 13 $7,105 +$169 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 13 $3,689 +$85 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $40,838 +$2,739 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $24,392 −$564 -2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $4,056 +$249 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $2,416 −$249 -10%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1,027 +$7 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $3,945 +$347 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Jun 12 $2,640 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $13,524 −$136 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $38 1m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $1,256 21m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 88¢ $71 32m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $781 37m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 40m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 42m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 44m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 48m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $11 52m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 53m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 57m
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $23 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $74 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $104 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $24 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $48 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 82¢ $987 1h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY Yes 80¢ $6 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 48¢ $520 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $589 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,272.67 · official $55,272.67 (match) · 3500 history records