Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:01:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a7…7635 other 139 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,389 (+1%) realized +$1,388 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$1,471per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$1,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$6
14 days−$26
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1,629
politics 35% −$83
sports 17% −$180
world 2% −$3
economics 1% +$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 -5.2% -14.2% 10% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 91 -1.5% -10.9% 8% 3% -9.7%
all 137 -3.0% -12.3% 18% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 11% -8.9%
10% -20.7% 11% -17.6%
15% -28.3% 10% -25.6%
20% -35.3% 9% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,295) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$14 · ×8.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,044
Realized+$1,388
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)137 / 139
History coverage128d
Avg bet$1,471
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $678 $678 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $365 $366 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $625 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $411 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,931 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,365 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $593 +$3 +0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,857 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,840 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $4,524 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $2,019 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $638 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,719 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $6,494 −$7 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $75 +$31 +42%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,825 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $2,053 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $4,556 −$5 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 02 $95 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,261 −$2 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $707 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,308 −$3 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $54 −$54 -100%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $524 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 23 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 22 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $2,477 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $4,082 −$5 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $1,291 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,153 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $7,529 −$8 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,399 −$4 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $3,590 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $1,286 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $3,874 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 03 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $2,689 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $679 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $624 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $625 3h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $410 5h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $411 7h
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $561 4d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $561 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $609 4d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $610 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $359 5d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $359 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $312 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $312 6d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $407 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $407 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $407 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $407 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $408 8d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $409 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $408 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $408 8d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $365 11d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $770 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $771 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $742 12d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $743 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 13d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $638 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $639 13d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $640 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,044.05 · official $1,044.05 (match) · 533 history records