Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a5…ee3d other 35 markets active 4d ago coverage 95d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 94d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$17,058 (-6%) realized +$11,112 · open −$28,170
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%11W / 28L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$8,242per market
Trades / day35.1pace
Fees−$2,513est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$88,667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 95d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$29,321
sports 25% −$17,391
crypto 18% +$10,717
finance 1% +$15,011
politics 0% −$255
world 0% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+5.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -89.2% -90.2% 0% 0% -41.4%
≤30d 16 -81.5% -83.2% 6% 6% -23.2%
≤90d 34 -33.4% -39.7% 26% 26% -12.3%
all 39 +16.4% +5.3% 28% 26% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.3% 26% -10.6%
10% -4.8% 23% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -14.0% 21% -27.0%
20% -22.4% 21% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,804) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +96% → late -60% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
82.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,476 vs −$1,285 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$88,667
Realized+$11,112
Unrealized−$28,170
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses11 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$2,513
Open positions18
Markets (closed)39 / 35
History coverage95d ⚠
Avg bet$8,242
Trades / day35.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $63,915 $44,505 −$19,409 (-30%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $8,801 $18,391 +$9,590 (+109%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10,500 $10,250 −$250 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $15,050 $9,945 −$5,105 (-34%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 59¢ 12¢ $12,655 $2,699 −$9,956 (-79%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2,800 $2,225 −$575 (-21%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 20¢ $657 $243 −$414 (-63%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of December? Yes 34¢ 6¢ $986 $159 −$826 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 45¢ 12¢ $450 $125 −$325 (-72%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $191 $114 −$77 (-41%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 64¢ 51¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-20%)
Will October be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $240 $2 −$238 (-99%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of June? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $454 $1 −$453 (-100%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 27¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $105 $0 −$105 (-100%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-99%)
Will June be the best month for Bitcoin in 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jun 29 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 29 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March? Jun 29 $100 −$100 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 5-6%? Jun 29 $629 −$629 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 4-5%? Jun 29 $600 −$600 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 29 $206 −$206 -100%
Will Brazil unban X before October? Jun 29 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $392 −$392 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 29 $198 −$210 -106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $568 −$568 -100%
GOP wins popular vote by 7% or more? Jun 29 $201 −$201 -100%
Will a Democrat win the popular vote and a Republican win the Presiden Jun 29 $315 −$315 -100%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $5,245 −$529 -10%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 24 $20,519 −$5,635 -28%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12,348 +$4,192 +34%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 16 $4,081 −$4,000 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $2,394 −$2,103 -88%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 11 $46,639 −$14,544 -31%
Will Trump say "Winston" or "Churchill" during King Charles visit? May 08 $55 +$45 +82%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 08 $24 +$81 +344%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Bitcoin hit $60k or $80k first? May 06 $114 −$114 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 28 $17 +$10 +61%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 28 $4,460 +$2,516 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 14? Apr 28 $10,795 +$5,631 +52%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5 Apr 25 $920 −$380 -41%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 24 $300 −$300 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 22 $680 −$680 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $11,836 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 14? Apr 13 $793 −$764 -96%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $2,804 +$507 +18%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Apr 05 $2,280 +$1,720 +75%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) close over $6,500 on the final trading day of March Apr 05 $4,265 +$15,011 +352%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 29 $948 −$299 -32%
Will Israel Adesanya win by KO or TKO? Mar 27 $194 −$194 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $35,217 +$2,134 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 27 $525 −$1,844 -351%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $3,809 +$6,387 +168%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $4,716 3d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3,085 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $30 4d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $14 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $9 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $55 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $152 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $74 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 5d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $76 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88,667.42 · official $88,667.42 (match) · 3500 history records