Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:06:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a4…58ae sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$156 (-23%) realized −$144 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$161
14 days−$161
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$102
politics 41% −$262
other 6% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -32.8%
≤30d 15 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -32.8%
≤90d 15 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -32.8%
all 15 -5.4% -14.4% 47% 47% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 47% -32.8%
10% -22.6% 47% -39.3%
15% -30.1% 47% -45.1%
20% -36.9% 47% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$46 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$144
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Yes 54¢ 52¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-28%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +140%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$44 +86%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$48 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $54 +$44 +83%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$28 +109%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $287 −$262 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.92 · official $53.38 (match) · 30 history records