Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:33:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

54 0x54a3…9b39 sports 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$1,997 (+26%) realized +$2,014 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip

Net edge+20%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,081per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$74est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$1,983now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+36.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+40.0%
≤30d	4	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+40.0%
≤90d	4	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+40.0%
all	4	+50.3%	+36.0%	100%	100%	+40.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+36.0%	100%	+40.0%
10% ← realistic here	+23.0%	50%	+26.6%
15%	+11.1%	50%	+14.4%
20%	+0.2%	50%	+3.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +55% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +50% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$621 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,983

Realized+$2,014

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$74

Open positions2

Markets (closed)4 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,081

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	No	61¢	60¢	$1,000	$992	−$8 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Under	60¢	60¢	$1,000	$992	−$8 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria	Jun 17	$1,013	+$773	+76%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro	Jun 17	$1,521	+$1,345	+88%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz	Jun 17	$1,004	+$172	+17%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala	Jun 17	$996	+$194	+20%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	60¢	$1,012	4m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	61¢	$1,012	5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova	BUY Aryna Sabalenka	78¢	$1,007	1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria	BUY Tatjana Maria	56¢	$1,013	1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro	BUY Emma Navarro	53¢	$507	4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro	BUY Emma Navarro	52¢	$1,014	4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala	SELL Alexandra Eala	100¢	$1,190	5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz	BUY Taylor Fritz	85¢	$1,004	6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Alexandra Eala	89¢	$92	6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Alexandra Eala	82¢	$603	7h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala	BUY Alexandra Eala	84¢	$301	7h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,983.47 · official $1,983.47 (match) · 14 history records