Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a1…f88b sports 222 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,116 (-5%) realized −$1,116 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%90W / 132L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$10
14 days−$1,262
30 days−$1,440
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$804
other 11% −$932
crypto 4% +$242
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -50.1% -54.8% 33% 28% -10.6%
≤30d 152 -1.6% -10.9% 43% 38% -14.6%
≤90d 222 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 36% -13.5%
all 222 -10.7% -19.2% 41% 36% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 36% -13.5%
10% -27.0% 28% -21.8%
15% -34.0% 21% -29.3%
20% -40.5% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$38 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,116
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses90 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions0
Markets (closed)222 / 222
History coverage43d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 222 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $101 −$15 -15%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $30 −$28 -91%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $121 −$20 -16%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $201 +$49 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $15 −$15 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$11 +11%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$20 +20%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -91%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 +$10 +49%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$40 +388%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $102 +$142 +139%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $842 +$155 +18%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $651 +$22 +3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,326 −$816 -62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $837 +$242 +29%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $1,043 −$696 -67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $112 +$34 +30%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $71 −$15 -21%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $122 −$17 -14%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $107 +$33 +31%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20 −$10 -49%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $33 +$16 +50%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $41 +$20 +49%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -94%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $501 +$25 +5%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$5 -50%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$200 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -66%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +62%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 68¢ $85 59m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $101 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 5¢ $3 2h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 55¢ $30 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $128 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 35¢ $20 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $101 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $250 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 80¢ $201 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 4¢ $2 5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 9¢ $10 27h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 10¢ $15 28h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 84¢ $111 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $120 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $7 4d
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE - Map 2 Winner BUY AGELITE 10¢ $5 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $30 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $20 5d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $109 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $100 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $119 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 542 history records