Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54a0…4134
weather · 85 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$365 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$337 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$268
Realized−$337
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 57
Open positions11
Markets (closed)74 / 85
History coverage365d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 11 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$344
7 days−$201
14 days−$201
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 59¢ $40 $72 +$32 (+79%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Yes 6¢ 11¢ $30 $56 +$26 (+87%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Yes 38¢ 37¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $40 $2 −$38 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Yes 75¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Maduro out in 2025? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $256 +$135 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$18 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$44 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$50 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$56 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$32 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$61 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $207 +$299 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$90 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 +$44 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 11? Jun 10 $84 −$80 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C or higher on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 10 $31 +$18 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $31 −$15 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 10 $31 −$8 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 10 $21 −$7 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 11? Jun 10 $31 −$13 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $21 −$9 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $62 −$59 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 +$15 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 12? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $152 +$46 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 10 $20 −$19 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $21 −$13 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -96%
Maduro out in 2025? Oct 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 63% −$213
other 23% +$189
world 12% −$225
culture 2% −$70
sports 1% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 54m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 98¢ $93 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 99¢ $279 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 69¢ $51 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? SELL Yes 22¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 4h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $25 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? SELL Yes 70¢ $78 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 24% -18.4%
≤30d 49 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 24% -18.4%
≤90d 49 -20.4% -28.0% 24% 24% -18.4%
all 74 -11.5% -19.9% 23% 23% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 23% -18.3%
10% -27.6% 23% -26.1%
15% -34.6% 22% -33.2%
20% -41.0% 20% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.95 · official $267.98 (match) · 185 history records