Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:23:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x549e…8fc4 crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$156 (+26%) realized +$156 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%11W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +18.0% +6.8% 69% 69% -0.3%
≤30d 16 +18.0% +6.8% 69% 69% -0.3%
≤90d 16 +18.0% +6.8% 69% 69% -0.3%
all 16 +18.0% +6.8% 69% 69% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 69% -0.3%
10% ← realistic here -3.5% 69% -9.9%
15% -12.8% 50% -18.6%
20% -21.3% 38% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$48 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$156
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses11 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$69 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$69 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$70 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $24 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 54 history records