Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:52:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x549c…b599 politics 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 72L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$16
other 3% $0
sports 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 6 -0.0% -9.5% 17% 0% -9.5%
all 76 -3.1% -12.3% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -20.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 72
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage634d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $59 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $59 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $60 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Player 566 win Beast Games: Season 2? Feb 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Michael Pittman Jr. be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 25 $0 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps decrease at the October meeting? Nov 24 $57 $0 +0%
Will TJ Watt win NFL Defensive Player of the Year? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alperen Sengun lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the Eastern Conference? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Celtic win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? Jan 28 $2 $0 +0%
Monkeypox pandemic in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pete Sessions be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 1 Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will stranded astronauts leave the ISS in 2024? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jimmy Carter attend presidential inauguration? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Someone else announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Dec 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will AC Milan win the Serie A? Dec 20 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Panthers win the NFC South? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will MAGA reach $1b first? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win 2024-25 NBA Defensive Player of the Y Dec 10 $0 $0 -2%
GOP wins popular vote by 1.5-1.75%? Dec 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Bills win the AFC East? Dec 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the UEFA Europa League? Nov 25 $0 $0 -3%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Nov 25 $0 $0 -1%
Will NPP win the most seats in the Ghanaian parliamentary election? Nov 25 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sergio Perez win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $0 $0 -2%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Nov 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? Nov 17 $0 $0 -4%
Will Trump nominate Mike Gallagher for Defense Secretary? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 22h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 20d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 21d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 42d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 42d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 47d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 47d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $60 73d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $60 73d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $60 93d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $60 94d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 97d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 98d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma SELL No 100¢ $60 98d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma BUY No 100¢ $60 99d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $60 102d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $60 103d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $60 104d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $18 105d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $42 105d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 110d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 111d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 111d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 112d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $60 113d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 116d
Will Player 566 win Beast Games: Season 2? SELL No 99¢ $58 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 161 history records