Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:23:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x549c…100a weather 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$72 (+13%) realized +$102 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%43W / 92L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$155
14 days+$140
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +25.5% +13.5% 33% 33% +3.3%
≤30d 118 -0.2% -9.7% 29% 29% -14.7%
≤90d 135 +1.4% -8.2% 32% 31% -14.8%
all 135 +1.4% -8.2% 32% 31% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 31% -14.8%
10% -17.0% 29% -23.0%
15% -25.0% 25% -30.4%
20% -32.4% 24% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$102
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses43 / 92
Open positions19
Markets (closed)135 / 154
History coverage53d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 17? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? Yes 44¢ 41¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 16? Yes 78¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 16? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $7 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +233%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 15? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 9? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 12? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $2 +$2 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 14 $2 +$7 +358%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $5 +$33 +637%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $2 +$159 +7916%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $2 +$11 +558%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$7 +319%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 13 $2 +$3 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June BUY Yes 78¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 17? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 17? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 16? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 43¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $1 27h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 27h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.83 · official $78.83 (match) · 338 history records