Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5496…3f4f world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 25L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% $0
other 31% $0
economics 4% +$1
sports 4% $0
politics 4% $0
tech 2% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 13 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -7.5% -16.3% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 35 -4.9% -14.0% 29% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 25
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage477d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $32 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $10 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $29 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $62 $0 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 03 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June? May 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? May 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Pacers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 11 $13 $0 -1%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 08 $15 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $15 +$1 +7%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will the next Pope be from South America? Apr 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 05 $1 $0 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 20 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $28 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 19h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $3 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 47h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $19 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $19 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $3 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $24 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $29 17d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $29 20d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.54 · official $30.54 (match) · 108 history records