Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x5493…5454 other 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$784 (+5%) realized +$781 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate69%49W / 22L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$106
30 days+$740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$934
other 11% −$159
sports 8% +$8
politics 2% −$24
economics 1% +$5
tech 0% +$17
culture 0% +$9
finance 0% +$1
weather 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -12.5% -20.9% 67% 33% -2.0%
≤90d 40 -13.2% -21.5% 65% 22% -5.1%
all 71 -8.0% -16.8% 69% 24% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 24% -5.3%
10% -24.7% 13% -14.4%
15% -32.0% 3% -22.6%
20% -38.7% 0% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$22 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$781
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses49 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)71 / 74
History coverage218d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? Yes 87¢ 97¢ $46 $51 +$5 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 71¢ 62¢ $22 $19 −$3 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $1,428 +$314 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $2,179 −$209 -10%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 07 $11 −$11 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $2,100 +$97 +5%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 $0 +3%
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $14 +$5 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $1,648 +$439 +27%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,520 +$114 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $1,491 +$46 +3%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 22 $22 +$9 +39%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,350 +$111 +8%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $22 −$10 -44%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $1,100 +$46 +4%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 19 $204 −$86 -42%
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 19 $33 +$9 +28%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 16 $14 +$3 +18%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 16 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $1,100 +$6 +1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Cadillac Championship? May 12 $23 +$4 +18%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 03 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $11 −$11 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 27 $21 −$10 -46%
Will there be exactly 2 major space weather events this week? Apr 24 $65 −$65 -99%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 24 $12 −$9 -71%
Will Lucknow Super Giants win the 2026 Indian Premier League? Apr 20 $25 $0 +2%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 20 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 11, 2026? Apr 20 $4 +$1 +26%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 03 $22 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 03 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 74°F or higher on Mar Apr 03 $19 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Apr 03 $25 +$1 +4%
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 31 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on March 20? Mar 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 15? Mar 20 $15 +$2 +10%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 20 $13 +$5 +41%
Iran/Hezbollah strike on Cyprus by March 7? Mar 11 $17 $0 +2%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Mar 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 08 $28 $0 -1%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Mar 08 $16 −$3 -16%
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners Mar 08 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Hyperliquid reach $44 in February? Feb 25 $17 $0 +1%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)? Feb 25 $22 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17? BUY Yes 91¢ $79 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $46 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $22 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,428 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1,970 11d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi BUY Yes 82¢ $11 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2,179 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2,197 17d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $10 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2,100 23d
GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,630 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $18 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1,520 31d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $1,491 34d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes 96¢ $31 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? SELL No 100¢ $1,461 34d
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $14 37d
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 37d
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? BUY No 92¢ $1,350 37d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $118 37d
Will Finland be the best Nordic country at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 39d
Will Australia be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $33 39d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 68¢ $22 39d
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? SELL Yes 93¢ $17 39d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $29 39d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $9 39d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $20 39d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 20¢ $12 39d
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? BUY No 96¢ $1,100 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.22 · official $150.22 (match) · 249 history records