Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5493…f465
other · 64 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$73
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses23 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage470d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 25¢ 22¢ $82 $73 −$8 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $161 −$2 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $60 −$2 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $148 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $109 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $25 −$4 -15%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $187 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $167 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $48 +$3 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 19 $88 −$5 -5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 16 $18 +$2 +10%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,042 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $2,252 −$11 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $972 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $46 +$2 +5%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $1,067 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $96 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $43 −$6 -14%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $986 +$1 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Dec 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Dec 10 $17 +$3 +17%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 23 $13 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31? Oct 23 $1 $0 -27%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 06 $1 $0 -8%
Will Chelsea win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $13 $0 -1%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 16 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 41% −$9
politics 38% +$7
sports 13% −$4
world 8% −$18
finance 1% +$3
economics 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 25¢ $82 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $4 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $141 7h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $145 9h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $5 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $29 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $48 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $78 39h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $161 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $10 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $48 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $60 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $148 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $148 2d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $109 3d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $109 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 33¢ $35 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $35 4d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam SELL No 89¢ $187 46d
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam BUY No 89¢ $187 46d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 87¢ $72 50d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? SELL No 87¢ $100 50d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 85¢ $139 50d
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? BUY No 85¢ $27 50d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $51 51d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $48 52d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? SELL Yes 74¢ $84 53d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY Yes 78¢ $88 53d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 76¢ $20 56d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 70¢ $18 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 21 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.7%
all 63 -1.8% -11.2% 37% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.7%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.35 · official $73.35 (match) · 241 history records