Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5493…a892 crypto 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (223 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$61 (+3%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%39W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day222.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$276
other 2% −$35
weather 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (223 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 43% -24.2%
≤30d 77 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 43% -24.2%
≤90d 77 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 43% -24.2%
all 77 -7.2% -16.1% 51% 43% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover222.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 43% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.1% 26% -31.5%
15% -31.4% 18% -38.1%
20% -38.2% 16% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses39 / 38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day222.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $209 −$209 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 25 $63 −$14 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $122 +$41 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $48 +$14 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$5 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $84 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$6 -53%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $206 +$32 +16%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 +$4 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +259%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$10 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$5 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$6 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 25 $11 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$14 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$13 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$7 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$23 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $11 +$7 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12PM ET Jun 24 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $22 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $45 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $6 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $14 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $23 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $22 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $6 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 262 history records