trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 19 | -10.4% | -19.0% | 79% | 5% | -62.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.0% | 5% | -62.0% |
| 10% | -26.7% | 5% | -65.6% |
| 15% | -33.8% | 5% | -68.9% |
| 20% | -40.3% | 5% | -72.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 98¢ | 99¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 04 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 15? | Jan 16 | $165 | −$165 | -100% |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? | Jan 06 | $92 | +$92 | +100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET | Dec 04 | $209 | −$209 | -100% |
| Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Nov 20 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? | May 18 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? | May 10 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | May 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? | May 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? | Apr 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? | Apr 27 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? | Apr 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? | Apr 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? | Apr 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? | Apr 11 | $1 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? | Apr 02 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? | Mar 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Solana above $145 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $1 | $0 | +0% |