Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:36:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5490…1806
crypto · 288 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$214 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$218 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$16
Realized+$218
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses69 / 214
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)283 / 288
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 5 History 283 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$49
14 days−$55
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 4¢ 15¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+258%)
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Down 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $2 −$4 (-69%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-62%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-71%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Down 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? May 27 $6 +$9 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 18-24? May 25 $11 +$5 +41%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 May 18-24? May 23 $6 +$46 +782%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 May 11-17? May 17 $5 +$20 +373%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during events with Brazilian president? May 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 07 $4 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 5? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $79,000 on May 5? May 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on May 5? May 06 $4 −$4 -100%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on May 3? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 3? May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 1? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,150 on May 1? May 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 1? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 30? May 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? May 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 30? May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $37 +$5 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 01 $13 −$8 -63%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $37 +$4 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $8 −$5 -56%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,450 on April 27? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 27? Apr 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 on April 27? Apr 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 63% +$526
other 23% −$190
sports 7% −$106
politics 4% −$39
world 3% +$29
finance 0% −$4
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 0¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 8¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 0¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 0¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 6¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 8? BUY Down 5¢ $5 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 0¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 0¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 1¢ $2 6d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 5? BUY Up 4¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 2¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 1¢ $3 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 2¢ $2 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 2¢ $0 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 2¢ $0 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 2¢ $1 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 2¢ $1 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 2¢ $0 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? BUY No 4¢ $5 8d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $33 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $15 10d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 10d
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 17d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 17d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -90.5% -91.4% 0% 0% -63.5%
≤30d 17 +8.1% -2.2% 24% 24% -0.3%
≤90d 202 -25.4% -32.5% 19% 17% -29.0%
all 283 -17.1% -25.0% 24% 21% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 21% -3.4%
10% -32.2% 18% -12.7%
15% -38.7% 17% -21.1%
20% -44.7% 15% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.16 · official $16.16 (match) · 754 history records