Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x548f…9d70 other 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,672 (-1%) realized −$1,673 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate15%24W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,048per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,953now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days+$121
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$64
politics 32% −$74
sports 9% −$1,667
economics 4% −$3
culture 3% −$6
world 2% −$5
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 +2.0% -7.7% 9% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 111 -14.8% -22.9% 5% 2% -11.3%
all 156 -2.8% -12.0% 15% 8% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -10.5%
10% -20.4% 8% -19.0%
15% -28.1% 7% -26.9%
20% -35.2% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,606) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$21 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$1,953
Realized−$1,673
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses24 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)156 / 159
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,048
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,260 $1,259 −$1 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $454 $455 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 100¢ $237 $238 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,442 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $2,765 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,810 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,569 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,107 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,793 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,651 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $63 +$82 +129%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,575 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $54 +$75 +140%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,416 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 25 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,797 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,045 −$12 -1%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,238 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 20 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,808 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,419 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,336 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $949 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,124 −$3 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $3,138 −$3 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $2,800 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $3,868 −$4 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $891 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $870 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,260 1h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,562 41h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,564 43h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,609 43h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,610 45h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 45h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,204 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,645 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,655 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,657 3d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $455 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 6d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,569 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,481 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,483 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,559 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,561 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,148 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,150 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,543 8d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,545 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,606 8d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,608 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,663 9d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,664 9d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,648 10d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,651 11d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $63 12d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $578 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,952.54 · official $1,952.54 (match) · 520 history records