Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x548e…7fe6 world 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-1%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate33%26W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$9
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$5
politics 24% $0
other 13% −$4
sports 8% −$10
crypto 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.4% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 27 -2.2% -11.5% 41% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 63 -1.3% -10.7% 37% 3% -9.7%
all 78 -4.6% -13.7% 33% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 4% -10.0%
10% -21.9% 1% -18.6%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses26 / 52
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage540d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 85¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $28 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 21 $3 $0 +8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $139 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $60 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 −$12 -87%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $13 +$2 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $117 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $1 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $326 +$3 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $37 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $109 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $81 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $77 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $38 +$1 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $7 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 23 $3 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $3 $0 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $38 $0 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $147 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $3 $0 -12%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $1 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $2 $0 +13%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $74 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $28 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $28 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $9 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $19 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 18h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 35h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 35h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 12¢ $3 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $9 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $32 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $31 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $21 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $7 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $28 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $29 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $9 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.53 · official $0.00 (match) · 323 history records