Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:29:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x548a…950f crypto 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%21W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$30
other 3% +$1
world 3% +$1
weather 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 4 +0.9% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
all 22 -4.1% -13.2% 95% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -21.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -29.1% 0% -26.4%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$43 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses21 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage234d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $49 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 11 $49 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on March 22 Apr 28 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 21 $48 $0 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February Mar 02 $48 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 26 $48 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Suns Feb 25 $48 $0 +0%
Will Luke Combs perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 25 $48 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Clippers Feb 08 $48 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? Jan 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on January 16? Jan 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? Jan 16 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 25 $41 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 20? Nov 19 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? Nov 18 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 19? Nov 17 $1,255 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 18? Nov 17 $1,252 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16? Nov 16 $1,249 +$2 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on November 1? Nov 03 $36 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 1h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 9d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $49 41d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 55d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on March 22 BUY No 100¢ $48 93d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 99¢ $48 100d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $48 111d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 32-33°F on February BUY No 100¢ $48 116d
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 117d
Celtics vs. Suns SELL Celtics 100¢ $48 117d
Celtics vs. Suns BUY Celtics 100¢ $48 117d
Will Luke Combs perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? BUY No 100¢ $48 133d
76ers vs. Clippers BUY 76ers 100¢ $48 139d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in January? BUY No 96¢ $43 155d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on January 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $43 156d
Will Solana dip to $90 before 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 179d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 20? SELL No 100¢ $1,260 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 20? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? SELL No 100¢ $4 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? SELL No 100¢ $1,200 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? SELL No 100¢ $55 215d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $110,000 on November 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 216d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 19? SELL No 100¢ $939 216d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 19? SELL No 100¢ $320 216d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,255 217d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 18? SELL No 100¢ $79 217d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 18? SELL No 100¢ $982 217d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 18? SELL No 100¢ $194 217d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on November 18? BUY No 100¢ $79 217d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 November 10-16? SELL No 100¢ $40 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.77 · official $49.77 (match) · 59 history records