Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5489…ab63 crypto 75 markets active 1d ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$263 (-17%) realized −$282 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$126
other 44% −$199
sports 7% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -28.1% -34.9% 32% 30% -35.6%
≤30d 71 -28.1% -34.9% 32% 30% -35.6%
≤90d 71 -28.1% -34.9% 32% 30% -35.6%
all 71 -28.1% -34.9% 32% 30% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 30% -35.6%
10% ← realistic here -41.1% 25% -41.8%
15% -46.8% 23% -47.4%
20% -52.0% 21% -52.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$282
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage5d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $109 +$9 (+9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$14 +67%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -70%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $27 +$20 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$33 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -23%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 +$11 +73%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$30 -73%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 −$6 -31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $231 −$184 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$5 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 11 $116 +$120 +103%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -12%
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) Jun 11 $10 −$1 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $74 −$63 -84%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$31 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $33 −$3 -8%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $33 +$22 +68%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$7 +89%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -87%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$10 +58%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$3 +73%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 +$18 +358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -71%
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$4 +90%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $20 28h
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 3d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 3d
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 57¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 BUY Over 20¢ $15 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $15 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 SELL Over 32¢ $14 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 SELL 24¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 28¢ $10 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $41 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $103 5d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.06 · official $349.06 (match) · 274 history records