Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:36:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5485…ae4a other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate48%24W / 26L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$214per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$170
14 days−$261
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 44% +$4
other 39% −$175
tech 14% +$119
world 2% −$5
finance 0% $0
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -26.1% -33.1% 0% 0% -38.7%
≤30d 7 -18.4% -26.2% 29% 14% -25.5%
≤90d 27 -5.0% -14.1% 48% 19% -9.9%
all 50 -7.1% -16.0% 48% 18% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 18% -10.0%
10% -24.0% 12% -18.6%
15% -31.3% 8% -26.5%
20% -38.1% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$28 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses24 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage207d
Avg bet$214
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b Jun 22 $49 −$9 -18%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $477 −$160 -34%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $318 −$91 -29%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 04 $229 +$54 +24%
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca May 27 $435 +$7 +2%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte May 25 $537 −$62 -12%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest May 24 $224 −$139 -62%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 15 $100 −$20 -20%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June? May 15 $76 −$43 -56%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 11 $49 −$14 -27%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the June 2026 meetin May 11 $103 −$27 -26%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting? May 08 $652 +$42 +6%
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 06 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 04 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $255 +$93 +36%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 30 $739 +$24 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the April 2026 meeti Apr 27 $773 +$194 +25%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting? Apr 24 $146 +$7 +5%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 20 $245 −$24 -10%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 10 $343 −$5 -2%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 07 $306 +$12 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after April 2026 meeting Apr 02 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Mar 31 $1 $0 -18%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March? Mar 29 $336 +$13 +4%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 29 $357 +$24 +7%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 27 $591 +$87 +15%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 21 $88 +$49 +55%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 21 $207 −$31 -15%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2026 me Mar 15 $540 +$16 +3%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting? Mar 12 $1,096 +$20 +2%
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte Mar 05 $3 −$3 -100%
No change in Bank of England's interest rates after March 2026 meeting Mar 04 $301 −$48 -16%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting? Mar 03 $113 −$9 -8%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Mar 03 $20 −$3 -15%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 28 $181 +$11 +6%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 25 $24 −$16 -65%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 25 $27 −$1 -5%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 25 $182 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Feb 24 $9 $0 -5%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Feb 24 $7 −$5 -67%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting? Feb 23 $3 −$2 -65%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Feb 22 $10 +$4 +41%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Feb 21 $10 $0 -3%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 20 $7 +$1 +14%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 08 $6 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $4 $0 +13%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 02 $2 $0 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novem Dec 01 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b SELL Yes 20¢ $40 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 23¢ $3 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 23¢ $0 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 23¢ $1 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 23¢ $44 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 91¢ $48 5d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 86¢ $12 7d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 b BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 76¢ $30 10d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 23¢ $32 10d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 76¢ $110 13d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 28¢ $41 13d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 31¢ $69 13d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 43¢ $7 13d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 39¢ $149 14d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 61¢ $149 14d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 62¢ $157 16d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 40¢ $158 16d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 69¢ $232 17d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 96¢ $232 17d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 61¢ $46 18d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 39¢ $46 18d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 18d
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 41¢ $42 18d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m SELL Yes 97¢ $51 18d
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m BUY Yes 77¢ $229 26d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca SELL Yes 100¢ $229 26d
Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official ca BUY Yes 98¢ $224 27d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte SELL Yes 100¢ $222 27d
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate afte BUY Yes 90¢ $201 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records