Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:53:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5483…8c0f crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$237 (+16%) realized +$242 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$164
sports 39% +$62
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.4% -5.5% 70% 25% +9.1%
≤30d 20 +4.4% -5.5% 70% 25% +9.1%
≤90d 20 +4.4% -5.5% 70% 25% +9.1%
all 20 +4.4% -5.5% 70% 25% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.5% 25% +9.1%
10% ← realistic here -14.6% 20% -1.4%
15% -22.8% 20% -10.9%
20% -30.4% 15% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$2 · ×8.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.02 per $1 lost it wins $20.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$311
Realized+$242
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)20 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 77¢ 78¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 56¢ 55¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $301 +$25 +8%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $101 +$42 +41%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $151 +$26 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $200 +$114 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $122 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $81 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $101 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $326 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $310.52 · official $310.52 (match) · 64 history records