Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5480…b38c sports 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,076 (-14%) realized −$1,148 · open +$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%13W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$850now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,077
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 42% -24.5%
≤30d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 42% -24.5%
≤90d 31 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 42% -24.5%
all 31 -25.3% -32.4% 42% 42% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 42% -24.5%
10% -38.9% 35% -31.7%
15% -44.8% 35% -38.3%
20% -50.2% 29% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$186 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$850
Realized−$1,148
Unrealized+$72
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses13 / 18
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage6d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 71¢ 78¢ $664 $734 +$70 (+11%)
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Playoffs Mentality Monster 69¢ 70¢ $114 $116 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 27 $336 +$75 +22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $203 +$131 +65%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $620 +$106 +17%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $362 +$288 +80%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $355 +$229 +64%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $125 −$123 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $177 −$57 -32%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $101 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $656 +$370 +56%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $68 +$75 +109%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $244 −$242 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $490 −$483 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $159 +$134 +84%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $135 +$62 +46%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $129 −$127 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $53 +$77 +145%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $22 +$10 +44%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $322 −$318 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $43 −$42 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $255 −$252 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $433 +$580 +134%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $814 −$798 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $83 +$67 +80%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $188 −$186 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $234 −$230 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $80 −$79 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $85 −$84 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 69¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 68¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 71¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 70¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster 69¢ $49 1h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $178 9h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 71¢ $491 10h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 61¢ $194 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl SELL MIBR fe 61¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 61¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 61¢ $29 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 61¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 61¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 61¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 62¢ $176 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 61¢ $12 11h
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl BUY MIBR fe 65¢ $59 11h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor BUY the bug 60¢ $101 11h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $203 12h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 85¢ $620 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $583 15h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 41¢ $125 15h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $111 17h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $56 17h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $56 17h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $139 17h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 28¢ $34 18h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 42¢ $143 22h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 39¢ $86 23h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 38¢ $8 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $850.30 · official $850.30 (match) · 123 history records