Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x547f…961f crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,181 (-29%) realized −$1,409 · open +$228
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,685now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$186
30 days−$891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$514
crypto 25% −$547
sports 6% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-41.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -21.4% -28.9% 40% 20% -68.6%
≤90d 22 -35.3% -41.5% 36% 27% -60.3%
all 22 -35.3% -41.5% 36% 27% -60.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.5% 27% -60.3%
10% -47.1% 27% -64.1%
15% -52.2% 18% -67.6%
20% -56.9% 18% -70.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$138 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$1,685
Realized−$1,409
Unrealized+$228
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)22 / 25
History coverage77d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 47¢ 54¢ $1,308 $1,512 +$204 (+16%)
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 45¢ 54¢ $145 $171 +$26 (+18%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? No $3 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $187 −$183 -98%
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 10 $26 −$3 -12%
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch Jun 04 $224 +$225 +100%
Fluent FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 04 $929 −$929 -100%
Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Genius FDV above $200M one day after launch? Apr 13 $7 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 11 $90 −$90 -100%
OneFootball FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 10 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 10 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 07 $275 −$275 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 07 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Apr 07 $160 +$236 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 07 $95 +$5 +5%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs Voca (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group St Apr 06 $8 +$2 +25%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Apr 06 $15 +$5 +31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Apr 06 $42 +$58 +138%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $17 56m
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $1 1h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $129 1h
Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 43¢ $3 1h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 52¢ $151 1h
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $3 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $17 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $9 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $145 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $66 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $157 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 47¢ $98 5d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 31¢ $187 8d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $40 9d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 51¢ $22 9d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 51¢ $227 10d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 51¢ $13 10d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $8 10d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $24 10d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 49¢ $20 11d
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? BUY No $3 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 50¢ $23 11d
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 53¢ $26 15d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 46¢ $160 15d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $4 15d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 45¢ $447 15d
Tea FDV above $80M one day after launch BUY No 95¢ $1 18d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 50¢ $9 18d
Tea FDV above $40M one day after launch BUY No 47¢ $5 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,684.60 · official $1,684.60 (match) · 179 history records