Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x547f…51d5
crypto · 761 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$3,249 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,262 · open −$33
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$117
Realized−$3,262
Unrealized−$33
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses435 / 353
Open positions31
Markets (closed)788 / 761
History coverage13d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day222.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 31 History 788 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$655
7 days−$2,583
14 days−$3,262
30 days−$3,262
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-8%)
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $26 $22 −$4 (-14%)
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 48¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-15%)
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 28¢ 14¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-15%)
Will Türkiye be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 67¢ 64¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Tread FDV above $80M one day after launch Yes 36¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico be the highest-scoring team in Group A during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Surf launch a token by December 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 62¢ 64¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Algeria be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 55¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 54¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 56¢ 63¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+12%)
Will Croatia be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? No 36¢ 36¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 54¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 60¢ 60¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 58¢ 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Yeet launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 67¢ 62¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 68¢ 78¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 7? Jun 13 $8 −$9 -110%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C or below on June 5? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 6? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 6? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 5? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on June 6? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 6? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 6? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 5? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Freiburg win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 5? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 5? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 5? Jun 13 $3 −$9 -262%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 7? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 5? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 13 $8 −$9 -110%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 5? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 6? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 5? Jun 13 $4 −$5 -117%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 5? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 5? Jun 13 $4 −$5 -118%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 5? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 5? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 70% −$2,053
other 23% −$325
weather 5% −$393
world 1% −$2
finance 1% −$31
tech 0% $0
culture 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 6m
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 6m
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 6m
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY No 36¢ $9 32m
Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 36m
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 58m
Will Canada be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 58m
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 54¢ $16 58m
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 1h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 46¢ $11 1h
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? SELL No 9¢ $0 1h
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? SELL No 8¢ $3 1h
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? SELL No 9¢ $1 1h
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? BUY No 68¢ $34 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL No 64¢ $6 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of SELL No 65¢ $26 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 64¢ $19 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 34¢ $22 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $0 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 67¢ $67 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY Yes 39¢ $9 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 62¢ $14 1h
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $1 1h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 62¢ $14 1h
Will prjx launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $6 2h
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 2h
Will Iraq be the worst-placed Asian nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $4 2h
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 -33.2% -39.6% 27% 2% -36.1%
≤30d 788 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 4% -22.9%
≤90d 788 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 4% -22.9%
all 788 -11.7% -20.1% 55% 4% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover222.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 4% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 2% -30.2%
15% -34.8% 2% -37.0%
20% -41.2% 1% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.61 · official $112.26 · 3500 history records