Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x547e…753c crypto 319 markets active 4d ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$279 (-15%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate39%125W / 194L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$171
sports 41% −$87
other 13% −$37
finance 1% −$20
weather 1% −$9
politics 1% +$3
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -10.8% -19.3% 31% 31% -10.9%
≤30d 22 -13.4% -21.6% 27% 27% -17.6%
≤90d 319 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 35% -24.8%
all 319 -13.9% -22.1% 39% 35% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 35% -24.8%
10% -29.5% 30% -32.0%
15% -36.3% 24% -38.6%
20% -42.6% 21% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses125 / 194
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)319 / 319
History coverage79d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 319 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo Jun 13 $5 +$3 +55%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $35 −$2 -6%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $5 +$7 +137%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $24 −$23 -97%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $22 +$43 +196%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $4 +$6 +137%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $38 −$5 -13%
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $72 −$21 -30%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 01 $5 −$5 -95%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$4 +414%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $2 −$1 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June May 31 $15 −$9 -59%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner May 31 $3 −$3 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $49 +$9 +19%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup Chin Apr 20 $1 +$1 +95%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 20 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Chal Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi Apr 19 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Sentinels vs FlyQuest (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Apr 19 $2 +$3 +129%
LoL: G2 Esports vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 18 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 18 $5 −$1 -18%
LoL: GIANTX vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 18 $1 −$1 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $5 +$11 +216%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs paiN Academy (BO3) - CCT South Ameri Apr 17 $2 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs paiN Academy - Map 1 Winner Apr 17 $3 −$2 -65%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? Apr 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Leylah Fernandez Apr 17 $1 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 17 $1 $0 -30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Apr 17 $7 −$1 -14%
Swiatek vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 22.5 Apr 17 $7 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 17 $2 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 17 $4 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 17 $4 −$4 -94%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Coco Gauff Apr 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $1 $0 -2%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians Apr 17 $10 +$3 +29%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-16? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Apr 16 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: HMBLE vs TITANS (BO1) - LIT Regular Season Apr 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Apr 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Eintracht Spandau 75¢ $29 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Eintracht Spandau 77¢ $30 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P SELL Team Heretics Academy 21¢ $4 3d
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playo BUY UCAM Esports Club 64¢ $5 3d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 24¢ $5 3d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 34¢ $1 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 38¢ $1 4d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Anubis Gaming 66¢ $7 4d
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 22¢ $1 5d
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Anubis Gaming 30¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $1 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $5 5d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau $1 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau $23 6d
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs PCIFIC (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY PCIFIC 12¢ $2 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner SELL UCAM Esports Club 51¢ $65 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 11¢ $6 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 14¢ $6 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 28¢ $10 6d
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A SELL UCAM Esports Club 48¢ $10 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Eintracht Spandau $13 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau $15 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau $5 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau $5 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 83¢ $21 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 24¢ $12 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 25¢ $20 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 23¢ $5 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner SELL Eintracht Spandau 28¢ $15 6d
LoL: Solary vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D SELL Eintracht Spandau 20¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 884 history records