Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:45:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x547d…9b76 crypto 1604 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$178 (+2%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate81%1297W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day82.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 307 +1.2% -8.4% 87% 25% -8.3%
≤30d 1605 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 35% -9.9%
≤90d 1605 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 35% -9.9%
all 1605 -0.3% -9.8% 81% 35% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 35% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 13% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.4%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1297 / 308
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1605 / 1604
History coverage23d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1605 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -3358%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $2 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records