Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x547b…8fad other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$55 (-30%) realized −$55 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$35
sports 27% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-59.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -54.7% -59.0% 26% 21% -48.7%
≤30d 19 -54.7% -59.0% 26% 21% -48.7%
≤90d 19 -54.7% -59.0% 26% 21% -48.7%
all 19 -54.7% -59.0% 26% 21% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.0% 21% -48.7%
10% -63.0% 21% -53.6%
15% -66.5% 21% -58.1%
20% -69.8% 16% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +51%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$6 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $31 −$22 -71%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$8 -81%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$4 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL Yes 89¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 10h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $2 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 10h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 10h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 13h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 13h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 13h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $2 14h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 37h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 38h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? SELL No 92¢ $14 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 38h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 39h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY No 64¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.86 · official $49.86 (match) · 41 history records