Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:20:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x547b…c543 other 14 markets active 12h ago coverage 96d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-5%) realized −$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% −$11
world 34% −$1
politics 30% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.0%
≤30d 3 -7.2% -16.0% 33% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 6 -12.8% -21.1% 33% 0% -19.4%
all 7 -10.5% -19.0% 43% 0% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -19.2%
10% -26.8% 0% -26.9%
15% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
20% -40.3% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage96d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 86¢ $16 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 90¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No 50¢ 96¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+92%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 82¢ 84¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -24%
China coup attempt before 2027? Apr 24 $14 $0 -1%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Mar 28 $50 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $19 −$10 -54%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Mar 15 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL No 71¢ $6 11h
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 3d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 6d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 9d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 14d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $5 17d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 23d
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $10 23d
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 23d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $5 23d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 23d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $5 23d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 23d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 23d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 26d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 26d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $7 51d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 51d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 53d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 42¢ $3 53d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 53d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 53d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $11 53d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $3 55d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $1 55d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 55d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $9 55d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 55d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $7 55d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.16 · official $60.16 (match) · 61 history records