Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5478…a9f8 weather 234 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$225 (-1%) realized −$239 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%165W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$451
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$270
crypto 18% −$307
world 12% +$247
sports 2% +$6
other 1% $0
tech 1% +$12
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 222 -1.8% -11.2% 71% 35% -12.0%
≤90d 231 +0.0% -9.5% 71% 37% -11.5%
all 231 +0.0% -9.5% 71% 37% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 37% -11.5%
10% -18.1% 24% -20.0%
15% -26.1% 16% -27.7%
20% -33.3% 13% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$394
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses165 / 66
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)231 / 234
History coverage85d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? No 81¢ 88¢ $81 $88 +$7 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C or higher on June 3? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $50 −$5 -10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 09 $63 −$59 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $340 −$340 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $11 +$5 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? Jun 09 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 09 $134 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? Jun 09 $12 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8? Jun 08 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 8? Jun 08 $104 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $38 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $42 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $379 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$13 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $53 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $61 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 7? Jun 07 $551 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 38°C on June 6? Jun 07 $137 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 07 $270 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 6? Jun 07 $372 −$2 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 7? Jun 06 $72 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 5? Jun 06 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 5? Jun 06 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 5? Jun 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 5? Jun 06 $15 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $17 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $18 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 06 $21 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5? Jun 06 $21 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 5? Jun 06 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 5? Jun 06 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 5? Jun 06 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 5? Jun 06 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 5? Jun 06 $228 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 5? Jun 05 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $7 −$6 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $222 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $269 7d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $71 7d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 89¢ $8 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 90¢ $28 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? SELL No 92¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $19 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 69¢ $5 8d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 69¢ $6 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 97¢ $49 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? SELL No 61¢ $9 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $0 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $3 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 9? BUY Yes 75¢ $4 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 96¢ $38 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? BUY No 83¢ $12 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? SELL No 91¢ $63 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $110 8d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? BUY No 95¢ $24 8d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? SELL No 98¢ $26 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $166 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? SELL No 98¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 8? SELL No 98¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $74 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 8? BUY Yes 98¢ $17 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.46 · official $394.46 (match) · 779 history records