Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5478…152f world 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate21%6W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$8
other 33% $0
finance 6% −$1
economics 4% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -12.0%
≤30d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 43% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 11 -11.5% -19.9% 27% 0% -12.2%
all 28 -5.9% -14.8% 21% 0% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 0% -11.2%
10% -23.0% 0% -19.7%
15% -30.4% 0% -27.5%
20% -37.2% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 84% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses6 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage447d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $28 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $33 −$3 -8%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $10 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $34 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $35 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $33 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $37 −$5 -13%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 -12%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? Apr 26 $2 $0 -18%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 09 $19 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? Apr 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 08 $19 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11? Apr 07 $19 $0 +0%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? Apr 06 $19 $0 -1%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $23 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 04 $24 $0 -1%
Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? Apr 03 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $28 4h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 86¢ $31 7h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 8h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $31 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $31 29h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $31 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $9 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 78¢ $22 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $31 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $30 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $24 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $33 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $34 30d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $35 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $16 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 52¢ $17 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $33 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $12 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $6 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $14 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $32 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records