trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | -2.5% | -11.8% | 0% | 0% | -12.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -14.9% | -23.0% | 43% | 0% | -10.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -11.5% | -19.9% | 27% | 0% | -12.2% |
| all | 28 | -5.9% | -14.8% | 21% | 0% | -11.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.8% | 0% | -11.2% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 0% | -19.7% |
| 15% | -30.4% | 0% | -27.5% |
| 20% | -37.2% | 0% | -34.6% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $33 | −$3 | -8% |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? | Jun 23 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 26 | $10 | $0 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $30 | $0 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $30 | $0 | +2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $34 | −$1 | -4% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 30? | May 24 | $35 | −$1 | -3% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | May 24 | $33 | −$1 | -2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | May 23 | $37 | −$5 | -13% |
| Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $1 | $0 | -5% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Jun 27 | $5 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? | Jun 01 | $2 | $0 | -12% |
| Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? | May 09 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? | Apr 26 | $2 | $0 | -18% |
| Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? | Apr 12 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? | Apr 09 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the New York Giants? | Apr 08 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? | Apr 08 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 07 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Elon tweet 425-449 times April 4 - 11? | Apr 07 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 06 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Steve Mnuchin buy TikTok? | Apr 06 | $19 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? | Apr 05 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? | Apr 05 | $23 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Apr 04 | $24 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the US add more than 250k jobs in March? | Apr 03 | $24 | $0 | +0% |