Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x5473…f822 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate45%13W / 16L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$20
14 days+$19
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 77% +$19
other 15% +$1
finance 5% $0
politics 1% +$3
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +24.6% +12.7% 30% 10% -5.6%
≤30d 19 +12.5% +1.8% 26% 5% -7.5%
≤90d 19 +12.5% +1.8% 26% 5% -7.5%
all 29 +10.9% +0.3% 45% 10% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.3% 10% -7.3%
10% -9.3% 7% -16.2%
15% -18.0% 7% -24.3%
20% -26.1% 7% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×5.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.78 per $1 lost it wins $7.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses13 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage484d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $49 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $3 $0 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $62 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 +$14 +247%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $80 +$6 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $48 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $88 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $44 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $88 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $4 +$1 +19%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $5 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? Apr 20 $5 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $1,900 on April 11? Apr 12 $1 $0 +1%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Mar 19 $4 +$2 +66%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Feb 25 $4 −$1 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $50 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $42 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 9h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 51¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $40 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $10 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $23 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $22 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 26¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 26¢ $5 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $6 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $54 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 72¢ $53 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.16 · official $50.16 (match) · 102 history records