Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5473…c293 crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,485 (-15%) realized −$2,485 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$3,862
politics 1% −$92
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 11 -42.9% -48.3% 18% 18% -39.3%
all 42 -36.5% -42.6% 36% 29% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.6% 29% -36.2%
10% -48.1% 21% -42.3%
15% -53.1% 12% -47.9%
20% -57.7% 5% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$181 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$2,485
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage143d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 76¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 13 $361 −$240 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 13 $713 −$36 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 13 $283 +$75 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 13 $416 −$116 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 13 $61 −$50 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 13 $408 +$106 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 13 $1,610 −$722 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 13 $414 −$414 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 13 $211 −$205 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 10 $569 −$252 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 10 $821 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Feb 19 $1,040 −$209 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 18 $644 −$197 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 18 $412 −$276 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 18 $825 −$10 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 18 $750 −$198 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 18 $400 +$65 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 18 $831 −$79 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 18 $100 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 18 $18 +$10 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 18 $306 +$111 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 18 $142 +$57 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Feb 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Feb 18 $100 +$25 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 18 $210 −$10 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 18 $400 −$197 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 18 $200 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Feb 18 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Feb 18 $46 −$10 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Feb 18 $60 −$10 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Feb 18 $679 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Feb 18 $300 +$25 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Feb 18 $300 +$62 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Feb 18 $400 −$394 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Feb 13 $535 −$219 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 13 $202 +$77 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Feb 13 $583 −$330 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 13 $467 −$460 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 13 $203 +$264 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 13 $123 −$122 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 13 $106 +$17 +16%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 01 $197 −$92 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $121 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $96 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $110 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $190 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $218 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $232 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $226 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.75 · official $37.75 (match) · 349 history records