Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5470…b04c crypto 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%38W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$37
14 days−$73
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 60% −$64
crypto 40% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -8.0% -16.8% 66% 41% -13.2%
≤30d 47 -6.0% -15.0% 64% 43% -15.3%
≤90d 63 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 44% -13.0%
all 63 +1.0% -8.6% 60% 44% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 44% -13.0%
10% -17.3% 37% -21.4%
15% -25.3% 25% -29.0%
20% -32.6% 21% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$29 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses38 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)63 / 63
History coverage48d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 63 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $71 +$20 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $56 +$18 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $143 −$48 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $66 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 23 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 23 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 22? Jun 22 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$2 -18%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 +$10 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $11 +$12 +108%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 09 $62 −$60 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $27 +$35 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$7 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 18? May 17 $32 −$11 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 17? May 17 $9 +$12 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 16? May 16 $25 −$16 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 6m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $2 14m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 26m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 31m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 182 history records