Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:09:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x546c…4d99 crypto 573 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,792 (-9%) realized −$3,863 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%246W / 321L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$360now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$61
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$211
sports 27% −$626
other 13% −$3,810
world 6% −$116
politics 0% +$11
culture 0% −$85
finance 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +12.0% +1.3% 39% 39% +8.3%
≤30d 24 +13.5% +2.7% 42% 42% +11.5%
≤90d 53 -6.6% -15.5% 40% 38% +5.1%
all 567 +1.0% -8.6% 43% 41% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 41% -19.9%
10% -17.3% 37% -27.5%
15% -25.3% 34% -34.5%
20% -32.7% 30% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$51 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$360
Realized−$3,863
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses246 / 321
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)567 / 573
History coverage140d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 55¢ $120 $168 +$48 (+40%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 19¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+41%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 100¢ $24 $37 +$13 (+56%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $36 $25 −$11 (-29%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 255 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$16 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$6 +287%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$34 +234%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$6 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $29 +$44 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$12 -81%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 −$5 -23%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$8 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$7 +234%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 17 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$22 +296%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$15 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49 +$24 +48%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Solana dip to $80 on April 8? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +10%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $14 +$12 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Apr 08 $15 +$17 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 07 $15 −$14 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $15 −$12 -80%
Will Solana reach $90 on April 7? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Will Solana dip to $75 on April 7? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Apr 07 $30 +$36 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$12 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Apr 07 $10 +$10 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 07 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 07 $11 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Apr 07 $16 +$30 +187%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 07 $15 +$14 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 07 $70 +$87 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 07 $62 −$59 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 07 $25 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 07 $20 −$19 -97%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $100 +$78 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $100 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $24 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $49 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $12 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $65 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $7 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $25 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $19 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $14 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $16 21h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 21h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $29 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $11 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $360.32 · official $360.32 (match) · 1640 history records